10 Steps on Tennis Match Analysis
1. Quick head-to head comparison. There is no need to overestimate this factor IMO, but we can definately find "inconvenient" opponents, this can be very useful if two different class players are going to meet.
Example: Roger Federer - Mariano Zabaleta. H2H analysis shows, that for Federer-Zabaleta match a good stake will be Total Over(N Games), where N is up to 20 games.
2. Determine whether the player is right-handed or left-handed. Practice shows that this factor is very significant it tennis match analysys. To find out technical details about the player, apply to official ATP site and enter the name of a player.
Example: Alejandro Falla(COL) is a low-ranked player, but he has an awesome record against left-handed players 11-0! This makes him a tough opponent for more high-ranked lefthanders, such as Gilles Muller or Feliciano Lopez.
3. Recent performance of the player. Look up, for example, the last month performance. Quality players does not lose to class-lower players. One loss can be accidental, but 2 or more such losses are showing really bad form.Loosing the sets by "1-6" or "0-6", loosing the match having won the first set are also very suspicious, often it means physical problems.
4. Statistics analysis. It is very useful, and many discoveries can be made with it. <u>Second serve points won </u>- this parameter shows the quality of play, because the second serve is always more slower than the first one, and real gameplay begins. We know, that so-called "big-serves" don't like long rallies, their style is a powerful first serve, net approaches and 1-2 powerful strikes and a point won. These sort of players face severe problems on 2nd serve when they meet with good players which can hold the ball in play. If 2nd serve points won percent is less than 50, this player is worth to play against. Generally, statistics should not be overestimated, but I use it to find serve -dependent players; when the serve weakens, these players become very vulnerable.
5. Performance on this tournament and this country. Another important factor to be considered. Many players have their preferences and places they like to go. A good performance in a selected coutry is a good sign. Tournament history appearance is also important, because ATP Race pints should be defended by the player.
6. Coming from one surface to another. It is well known that the most hard transfers are from claycours to hardcours (outdoor hard, indoor hard, carpet and grass) and vice versa.
7. Long distance travels, comint from one continent to another. First of all, this is connected with acclimatization problems. A good bet may be on player, which is already "warmed-up" in this region against the traveller.
8. Playing against some category - Top10, Top25, Top50 etc. This must be taken into consideration when totals and handicaps are analyzed. For example, we are examining a handicap +6 on a low ranked player against Top50 player. If this player fights hard against Top50 (70-80% of losses are tight), the handicap is worth trying.
9. Playing against some nationality. Not very significant point, but sometimes worth to see in order to get more confidense to the bet.
10. Playing as qualifier or against qualifiers. Important factor, because many qualifiers (players who passed through qualifying rounds) make sensations in the first rounds. Sensations happen when such warmed-up qualifier meets players which have recently arrived in this coutry and have problems with acclimatization.
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About the Author
Professional tennis bettor.
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